Draft day is the best time for fantasy baseball owners to take a risk
NEW YORK – One of the great things about playing season-long fantasy sports is the camaraderie it brings out in its participants.
We all want to do well and win our leagues, but unlike in daily fantasy sports (DFS), it’s more about the competition than the coin. That was clearly the case at last weekend’s annual Tout Wars auctions.
But the same can be said for just about any of the fantasy league drafts that take place right before the start of the regular season.
Having done several of these drafts this month, I’ve come to this conclusion: I might be far too risk-averse for my own good.
I realized as I began preparing for my Tout Wars NL-only league there isn’t a particular player or two I have on a majority of my rosters.
The closest I can find is Oakland Athletics third baseman Ryon Healy, someone I’ve mentioned a couple times in previous columns this spring.
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But otherwise, there aren’t any “must-have” players I’m targeting this year the way it was in 2014 when I had Jose Abreu in just about every league possible.
This revelation came into focus when New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi recently announced Greg Bird would be the team’s full-time first baseman.
My first thought was: “I knew it! I told everyone within earshot at the start of spring training that Chris Carter wasn’t a serious threat to Bird’s playing time.”
I remember getting Bird in the 16th round of the Mixed LABR draft in mid-February and feeling pretty smart to have called it correctly. But just as quickly, I also remembered I passed on Bird and bought Carter in the AL LABR auction a few weeks ago.
Why would I have done that?
The answer lies in an overall philosophy that works well in the stock market but can be counterproductive in fantasy baseball — spreading the risk.
Fear factor
Whether it’s a conscious or subconscious decision, I’ll bet many other fantasy owners do the same thing. If they’re not totally convinced a player is being overvalued or undervalued, they’ll shy away from getting too many shares of that player.
It’s a classic case of avoiding disaster taking priority over the possibility of striking it rich. Put more simply, when given a 50-50 chance of winning $10 or a 1-in-8 chance of winning $100, most people will take the less-risky option, even if the law of probability says it’s better to do the opposite.
Fantasy baseball: Player rankings by position
The fear of failure is more powerful than the lure of success. We see it with NFL coaches all the time in fourth-and-short situations. Or MLB managers when they call for a bunt. The numbers show they’d improve their chances of winning by taking a calculated risk rather than playing it safe … but invariably, they play not to lose instead of playing to win.
For fantasy baseball owners, the fear of failure can lead to second thoughts about drafting a player who’s already on another one of their teams. What happens if that player gets injured and ruins the season for not just one, but several of my teams?
But really, the best time to take on a bit more risk is on draft day — when there’s an entire season left to fix whatever mistakes are made.
Embracing risk
At Tout Wars, my strategy began with the idea that this was my only league in 2017, and if I liked a particular player more than the other owners, I’d bid the extra dollar.
Guess how that turned out?
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Since Tout Wars uses on-base percentage instead of batting average, hitters who draw walks get a bump in value. And since five of the top eight NL players in walk rate are first basemen, that’s a great place to start. I targeted Joey Votto (16% walk rate, .434 OBP) or Freddie Freeman (12.8%, .400) to build my offense around.
Not long after a $40 Paul Goldschmidt topped Bryce Harper at $39 as the most expensive hitter in the auction, Votto was nominated. Remembering my pledge to embrace a bit more risk, I twice went past my projected $36 bid limit, all the way to $39. But when the bidding hit $40, I had to bow out.
A short time later, Freeman came up, and the bidding again hit the mid-30s. I went all the way to $38 but couldn’t bring myself to make Freeman the third member of the $40 club.
There’s a fine line between embracing risk and being foolish. The $40 mark is where I decided to draw it.
That didn’t mean there weren’t other ways to take some calculated gambles. I ended up buying into three players with injury concerns who could turn out to be huge bargains if they recover fully.
• David Dahl ($14): The Colorado Rockies outfielder is making progress in his return from a stress fracture in his ribs. He’s not going to be on the active roster for the start of the season, but a return in mid- to late April would make this an excellent investment.
Dahl hit .315/.359/.500 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in 222 at-bats for the Rockies last season in his first exposure to major league pitching. Even though he was limited to seven home runs and five stolen bases, he has shown both power and speed during his minor league career. Turning 23 on April 1, he has plenty of room for growth, especially in Colorado.
• Matt Harvey ($10): As we were drafting, Harvey was pitching for the New York Mets that afternoon. I didn’t learn until after I had won him that he had hit 97 mph with his fastball and had had his best outing of the spring. The steady progress Harvey has shown coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome is encouraging for fantasy owners who remember how good he was when healthy.
• Tom Murphy ($4): He was one of this season’s sleeper catchers until he was hit by an Anthony Rizzo swing and suffered a hairline fracture in his forearm. With the position so terribly thin, especially in NL-only leagues, Murphy could earn his bid price back in one healthy month. As it looks, I might only need a replacement in April before he’s ready to play again.
Yes, there’s risk in drafting an injured player who might start the season on the disabled list. But the player pool right now is the most uncertain it’s going to be all year.
Last spring, Trevor Story, Jonathan Villar and Aledmys Diaz were largely unknown quantities in fantasy baseball, but each one broke out in a major way. Picking up one of them early helped ease the pain of making a mistake or two on draft day.
There will be more surprises this season. We just don’t know their identities yet.
By acknowledging there will be many opportunities to improve a fantasy team during the regular season, it makes it much easier — even for risk-averse owners — to take a few calculated gambles.
Full roster - NL Tout Wars
C Cameron Rupp $10
C Tom Murphy $4
1B Brandon Belt $26
2B Kolten Wong $11
SS Trevor Story $26
3B Anthony Rendon $24
MI Dilson Herrera $1
CI Adonis Garcia $8
OF Carlos Gonzalez $25
OF Ender Inciarte $18
OF David Dahl $14
OF Nick Markakis $10
UT Jarrett Parker $6
SW Roman Quinn $3
SP Jon Lester $23
SP Matt Harvey $10
SP Taijuan Walker $9
SP Adam Wainwright $5
SP Dan Straily $4
P Carl Edwards Jr. $1
P Kyle Barraclough $3
RP A.J. Ramos $13
RP Greg Holland $6
Reserves: Jesus Aguilar, Tyler Chatwood, David Wright, Franklin Gutierrez