FANTASY SPORTS

Nab stolen bases in later rounds

Greg Pyron
BaseballHQ.com

In fantasy baseball, the stolen base category sometimes can be tricky to manage.

The Padres’ Manuel Margot stole 30 bases at Class AAA last year before seeing his first major league action in September.

The pool of players who contribute a large number of stolen bases is rather small, and many are one-trick ponies because of their lack of production in other categories. Savvy fantasy owners are sometimes hesitant to invest heavily in them because a leg injury could seriously undermine that player’s value. Instead, owners prefer to roster cheap speed that can be acquired in the later rounds of the draft or among undrafted free agents.

By looking for stolen bases in the late rounds, owners can allocate resources in earlier rounds to players who are better-rounded. The following players could give fantasy teams a boost in stolen bases without the hefty price tags.

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American League

Jarrod Dyson is slated to be the leadoff man and starting left fielder for the Seattle Mariners. He has been a prolific base stealer over the years, averaging 31 per season since 2012, despite never logging 300 at-bats. The speedster seems destined for much more playing time in 2017, making him a prime candidate to lead the American League in stolen bases.

Leonys Martin of the Mariners rebounded from a disappointing 2015 by batting .247 with 15 homers and 24 stolen bases in 518 at-bats a year ago. The 29-year-old seemed to sell out for more power; he nearly doubled his previous career best in home runs but also had a considerable rise in his strikeout rate. Barring adjustments, the batting average isn’t likely to get much better, but the blend of 10 homers and 20 to 25 steals warrants interest in fantasy leagues.

Mallex Smith is vying to begin the season as the Tampa Bay Rays’ primary left fielder. His chief competition, Colby Rasmus, got a late start this spring after hip and core muscle surgeries in October and might open 2017 on the disabled list.

Smith hasn’t been bashful about displaying his tremendous speed on the basepaths. The 23-year-old swiped 16 bags in 189 major league at-bats a year ago and amassed 57 steals along with a .306/.373/.386 slash line in 484 at-bats between Class AA and Class AAA in 2015. He is capable of a respectable batting average and 30-plus steals in 2017, provided the playing time materializes.

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Texas Rangers outfielder Delino Deshields had a season to forget in 2016, a .209 batting average with eight steals in 182 at-bats. That’s a far cry from his .261 batting average, .344 on-base percentage and 25 stolen bases in 425 at-bats the previous year. However, his strong performance this spring, fueled by improved conditioning and a refined plate approach, has led to renewed optimism.

As of now, the 24-year-old is slated to enter 2017 as a reserve outfielder, but it’s conceivable he could overtake Jurickson Profar for the left-field job. If that happens, Deshields could make a run at 25 to 30 stolen bases. Fantasy owners would be hard pressed to find a more intriguing, dirt-cheap speculative play.

National League

The Philadelphia Phillies finally settled on Cesar Hernandez in the leadoff spot in late July. The second baseman posted a .313/.430/.435 slash line with four homers and eight steals in 230 at-bats afterward. He has elite speed, but lousy instincts and poor jumps contributed to a 57% success rate on the basepaths (17 steals in 30 attempts) in 2016. As a result, the 26-year-old spent time during the offseason working on the subtleties of base stealing. An improvement in that area could unlock his 30-plus-steal upside.

San Diego Padres outfielders Travis Jankowski and Manuel Margot could be significant contributors in the stolen base category. Jankowski didn’t receive regular playing time until July but managed to swipe 30 bases in 335 at-bats. Though the 25-year-old hit .245, his selectivity at the plate helped him draw plenty of walks and post a solid .332 on-base percentage. He is unlikely to provide help in other categories, but he is capable of a 40-steal campaign.

Players expected to begin the season on the disabled list

Margot, 22, batted .304 with six homers and 30 stolen bases in 517 at-bats at Class AAA before receiving his first taste of the majors in late September. As with all rookies, some growing pains can be expected, but he has the capacity to swipe 25 to 30 bases in 2017. While there is concern about playing time because of an outfield logjam once Alex Dickerson returns from a back injury, the combination of low cost/high stolen-base potential makes rostering Jankowski or Margot a worthy gamble.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have yet to settle on a starter at shortstop, but Chris Owings is considered the favorite. Even if he doesn’t win that position battle, his versatility could be put to use with occasional starts at shortstop, second base, center field and right field. The 25-year-old is coming off his best season, as he batted .277 with five homers and 21 steals in 437 at-bats last year. His strong numbers from the second half of 2016 — .271 batting average, three homers and 13 steals in 258 at-bats — hint at 25-steal capability.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a crowded outfield, but it’s not difficult to envision Andrew Toles carving out a decent chunk of playing time. After being out of baseball in 2015 because of anxiety/personal issues, he returned in 2016 and quickly worked his way through the minor league system. The 2012 third-round pick batted .316 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases in 231 at-bats between Class AA and AAA. He finished the season in the majors, batting .314 with three homers and a steal in 105 at-bats with the Dodgers last summer. With Andre Ethier (herniated disk) likely to open the year on the disabled list, left-handed-hitting Toles figures to be the primary left fielder, at least initially. Toles, 24, has the ability to be an across-the-board contributor with 20- to 25-steal potential, if the opportunity arises.