College football 2016: American Athletic Conference preview

First in an 11-part series

The American Athletic Conference has designs on turning the Power Five into a Power Six, trading in its current existence outside the automatic-bid structure for a seat among the established major conferences.

It’s a grand plan, though perhaps a fruitless one. For all its recent gains — and the AAC as a whole is fresh off an outstanding season — there is a clear delineation between the Group of Five and the Power Five. It’s seen most clearly in numbers: Non-power leagues, such as the AAC, simply don’t tout the same depth.

But then there’s Houston. In the Cougars, which claimed the conference title and won the Peach Bowl last season, the AAC has a tent-pole program upon which to build its national bona fides.

2016 college football TV schedule

For now, at least. The Big 12 Conference’s recent announcement that it would pursue expansion throws a wrench into the American’s plan for a step up the ladder, seeing as Houston stands as the league’s most likely addition.

Well, so be it. For now, the Cougars carry the flag for the American — and will continue to do so until, or if, the Big 12 opens its doors. And when it comes to 2016, Houston gives the conference a clear national contender.

Projected order of finish

Rank among the FBS' 128 teams in parentheses

EAST

1. South Florida (No. 35)

2. Temple (No. 41)

3. Cincinnati (No. 59)

4. Connecticut (No. 75)

5. East Carolina (No. 96)

6. Central Florida (No. 110)

WEST

1. Houston (No. 16)

2. Memphis (No. 38)

3. Navy (No. 43)

4. Tulsa (No. 66)

5. SMU (No. 112)

6. Tulane (No. 115)

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Preseason all-conference team

OFFENSE

QB: Greg Ward, Houston

RB: Marlon Mack, South Florida

RB: Jahad Thomas, Temple

WR: Keevan Lucas, Tulsa

WR: Isaiah Jones, East Carolina

TE: Elkanah Dillon, South Florida

OL: Dion Dawkins, Temple

OL: Ryan Leahy, Cincinnati

OL: Will Noble, Houston

OL: J.T. Boyd, East Carolina

OL: Kofi Amichia, South Florida

DEFENSE

DL: Haason Reddick, Temple

DL: Folorunso Fatukasi, UConn

DL: Tanzel Smart, Tulane

DL: Praise Martin-Oguike, Temple

LB: Steven Taylor, Houston

LB: Nico Marley, Tulane

LB: Auggie Sanchez, South Florida

CB: Deatrick Nichols, South Florida

CB: Jamar Summers, UConn

S: Zach Edwards, Cincinnati

S: Sean Chandler, Temple

SPECIALISTS

K: Jake Elliott, Memphis

P: Spencer Smith, Memphis

RET: Rodney Adams, South Florida

Best units

Quarterback: Houston. Greg Ward has proved himself to be not just a top-flight college starter — a question heading into last season — but nearly a perfect fit for Tom Herman’s offense.

Running back: South Florida. The Bulls have the league’s top back in Marlon Mack and plenty of depth in reserve. The running game also lands a significant boost from dual-threat junior quarterback Quinton Flowers, who added nearly 1,000 yards on the ground last season.

Wide receiver and tight end: East Carolina. First-year coach Scottie Montgomery will have plenty of depth and talent to work with at receiver, led by Isaiah Jones, the top returner at the position in the American.

Offensive line: Houston and South Florida (tie). USF’s front will lead the way for a potentially punishing ground game, while the Cougars’ line could be even better than expected should junior college transfer Na’Ty Rodgers anchor the strong side at right tackle.

Defensive line: Temple. Although Matt Rhule and his staff must address a number of key losses, the line will provide the foundation for what should be another stingy and opportunistic defense.

Linebacker: Houston. Steven Taylor is the best of the bunch and likely the best at this position in the AAC, but all three of the Cougars starters will be in contention for all-league honors.

Secondary: UConn. Bob Diaco’s defense provides reason for optimism in a fairly undecided East Division, and no unit stands out more than the Huskies’ experienced secondary.

Special teams: Memphis. With Jake Elliott one of the nation’s best kickers and punter Spencer Smith a likely all-conference pick, the Tigers are loaded in the kicking game.

National award candidates

Heisman Trophy: Greg Ward, Houston. Much depends on his team’s performance against Oklahoma, Louisville and the American’s best, but a healthy Ward should have the numbers needed to at least factor into the Heisman conversation.

Davey O’Brien Award (best quarterback): Ward. At the very least, Ward stands as the conference’s strongest hope for the O’Brien.

Butkus Award (best linebacker): Steven Taylor, Houston. Taylor will put up the sort of flashy totals — sacks and tackles for loss, most notably — that Butkus voters love to see from their candidates.

Lou Groza Award (best kicker): Jake Elliott, Memphis. The senior has received far too little national recognition through the first three years of his superb college career.

Ranking the starting quarterbacks

1. Greg Ward, Houston. It’s completely reasonable to expect Ward to be even better this fall than he was in 2015, when he totaled nearly 4,000 yards of total offense to go with 38 combined touchdowns.

2. Quinton Flowers, South Florida. As a runner and a passer — both mostly as a runner — Flowers adds an intimidating presence to the offense.

3. Dane Evans, Tulsa. Evans found a home last season in Philip Montgomery’s Baylor-like offense and should be even better in 2016 thanks to a growing familiarity with the system.

4. Matt Davis, SMU. Davis brings better-than-expected athleticism to Chad Morris’ spread-based system and adequate skills in the passing game, though he must became more consistent as a thrower to earn all-conference recognition.

5. Hayden Moore, Cincinnati. Reading through coach Tommy Tuberville's tea leaves indicated Moore would unseat Gunner Kiel long before the move happened this month. Moore's yards per attempt trailed Kiel's last season, but in the offseason he has been the better QB.

6. P.J. Walker, Temple. A solid offensive line and a strong backfield will help, but the Owls’ quest for another divisional title rests almost solely on Walker’s performance as a senior.

7. Tago Smith, Navy. Have pity on the quarterback tasked with replacing Keenan Reynolds … but keep some faith in Smith, an athletic senior very capable of maintaining Navy’s momentum on offense.

8. Philip Nelson, East Carolina. The former Minnesota transfer brings 16 career starts into his senior season, giving ECU the right amount of experience under center amid an offseason coaching change.

9. Riley Ferguson, Memphis. Ferguson is ready for a starting opportunity after two years at Tennessee and a short junior college stint, but the Tigers will see a decline in production under center in the transition from Paxton Lynch.

10. Justin Holman, UCF. Let’s write off Holman’s highly disappointing 2015 season and focus on what the senior might be able to achieve in Scott Frost’s more quarterback-friendly offense.

11. Bryant Shirreffs, UConn. The Huskies must put together a more consistent running game to help the former N.C. State transfer.

12. Glenn Cuiellette or Darius Bradwell, Tulane. It’ll be either a sophomore in Cuiellette or a true freshman in Bradwell, and neither option inspires tremendous confidence.

Top newcomers

Houston DT Ed Oliver: The only five-star signee in the American this season could be a dominant force early.

Houston OT Na’Ty Rodgers. He’ll get first crack at the starting job at right tackle.

Houston RB Duke Catalon. The former Texas transfer adds yet another dangerous element to Houston’s already imposing offensive attack.

Navy DB Sean Williams. After impressing as a true freshman, Williams will step into a crucial starting role at safety on Navy’s defense.

Cincinnati WR Jamil Kamara. With last season’s receiver corps decimated by graduation, the Bearcats will lean heavily on the former Virginia transfer to contribute from the start.

UConn LB E.J. Levenberry. He’s no slouch: Levenberry made 60 tackles during two seasons at Florida State before transferring to UConn last offseason, and after a redshirt year stands poised to excel in Diaco’s system.

Games of the year

Houston vs. Oklahoma (in Houston), Sept. 3. It’s an early tone-setter for the Cougars, who have hopes of perfection, and for the entire conference as a whole.

Memphis at Mississippi, Oct. 1. Last year’s win against the Rebels was the impetus for a memorable season; another win this fall would work similar wonders for the Tigers and first-year coach Mike Norvell.

South Florida at Temple, Oct. 21. As we’ll see, the Temple has the good fortune of facing its two fiercest divisional rivals at home.

Cincinnati at Temple, Oct. 29. The Bearcats must prove themselves capable of winning on the road to be taken seriously in this multiple-team race in the East Division.

Louisville at Houston, Nov. 17. The second of Houston’s two games against Power Five competition provides the Cougars with another opportunity to make national noise.

Houston at Memphis, Nov. 25. There’s reason to think these two divisional foes will be within a game of each other in the conference standings heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Navy vs. Army (in Baltimore), Dec. 10. Navy aims to extend its long winning streak against its academy rival.

Best chance at the Playoff

The conversation begins and ends with Houston, which has the talent, coaching, experience and schedule to not just reach another New Year’s Six bowl game but challenge for the College Football Playoff outright.

The Playoff might be a stretch — but another season with double-digit wins and a major bowl is not. It all begins with Oklahoma, a neutral-site affair played in the Cougars’ backyard. A win there would give Houston an early foothold in the top 10; the team would stay in that mix for as long as it maintains a perfect record.

It won’t be easy. Houston must face Cincinnati, Navy and Memphis on the road — with the Bearcats a top-three team in the East Division and the Midshipmen and Tigers easily the Cougars’ greatest threats to the West. There’s also a late-season date with Louisville.

Yet Houston will be the team to beat in the American, and it stands to reason that the conference champion will be viewed as the strongest team on the Group of Five level. That would place the Cougars back into a January bowl. But can this team do more?

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