College football 2016: Atlantic Coast Conference preview

Seventh in an 11-part series. Read previous entries on the AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Independents.

The chances of the Atlantic Coast Conference putting two teams in the College Football Playoff is about as good as the chances the ACC has of putting a team other than Clemson or Florida State in the Playoff — which is to say, not very good at all.

Two teams enter the Playoff race, but only one will leave to punch its ticket into the four-team layout. There isn’t much of a sample size at our disposal, but the brief history of the new postseason format has revealed one near-rock-solid truth: Four of the five major conferences will put their champion into the field.

If you can recall, there was a degree of handwringing after the Playoff’s formation that the Southeastern Conference would form half of the four participants — a thought rooted in the Alabama-LSU championship rematch that now seems silly in hindsight.

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So let’s think of it another way: There’s a greater chance that the ACC gets left out altogether. And what are the odds of that?

Let’s say Clemson loses to — let’s get really crazy — Auburn to open the year and again to Florida State in late October. Now, let’s imagine a world where the Seminoles flop against Mississippi in their own season opener and — again, this is pretty crazy — lose to rival Florida.

OK, there you go. Instead of two teams, the ACC has none. What are the odds? Somewhere between slim and none — but those are still better than the odds of seeing Clemson and FSU meet in October and then again to decide the national title in January.

Projected order of finish

Rank among the FBS' 128 teams in parentheses

Atlantic

1. Florida State (No. 2)

2. Clemson (No. 6)

3. Louisville (No. 31)

4. North Carolina State (No. 74)

5. Wake Forest (No. 87)

6. Syracuse (No. 104)

7. Boston College (No. 102)

Coastal

1. North Carolina (No. 22)

2. Miami (Fla.) (No. 30)

3. Pittsburgh (No. 37)

4. Virginia Tech (No. 56)

5. Duke (No. 59)

6. Georgia Tech (No. 63)

7. Virginia (No. 111)

Preseason all-conference

Offense

QB: Deshaun Watson, Clemson

RB: Dalvin Cook, Florida State

RB: Wayne Gallman, Clemson

WR: Travis Rudolph, Florida State

WR: Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech

TE: Jordan Leggett, Clemson

OL: Roderick Johnson, Florida State

OL: Dorian Johnson, Pittsburgh

OL: Jay Guillermo, Clemson

OL: Mitch Hyatt, Clemson

OL: Adam Bisnowaty, Pittsburgh

Defense

DL: DeMarcus Walker, Florida State

DL: Carlos Watkins, Clemson

DL: Nazair Jones, North Carolina

DL: Ejuan Price, Pittsburgh

LB: Keith Kelsey, Louisville

LB: Ben Boulware, Clemson

LB: Devonte Fields, Louisville

CB: Avonte Maddox, Pittsburgh

CB: Cordrea Tankersley, Clemson

S: Derwin James, Florida State

S: Quin Blanding, Virginia

Specialists

K: Greg Huegel, Clemson

P: Nicholas Conte, Virginia

RET: Ryan Switzer, UNC

Best units

Quarterback: Clemson. There are several big-name quarterbacks in the ACC — Miami’s Brad Kaaya and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, to name a pair — but Deshaun Watson is in a class by himself.

Running back: Florida State. The Seminoles need Dalvin Cook to put together a healthy and complete season — and if he does, he’ll be in line for an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony.

Wide receiver and tight end: Clemson and Florida State (tie). It’s only fair to recognize both units, even if the Tigers hold the advantage at tight end in all-conference pick Jordan Leggett.

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Offensive line: Florida State. This offensive front will be even better than expected should the handful of underclassmen along the interior, such as Kareem Abe and Alex Eberle, are ready to take the next step in their progression as full-time starters.

Defensive line: Florida State. It’s the same story along the defensive front, where the Seminoles can go from very good to great should sophomore end Josh Sweat match his All-America potential.

Linebacker: Louisville. The Cardinals’ combination of Keith Kelsey, Devonte Fields, Josh Harvey-Clemons and Stacy Thomas is as good as you’ll find in the entire country.

Secondary: Virginia Tech and Florida State (tie). It should come as no surprise to find the Hokies and Seminoles fairly loaded along the back end. When it comes to FSU, sophomore safety Derwin James is poised for a simply outstanding college career.

Special teams: Miami (Fla.) and Pittsburgh (tie). When push comes to shove in the Coastal Division, it could be an advantage in special teams that lifts one of the Hurricanes or Panthers to the top.

National award candidates

Heisman Trophy: Deshaun Watson, Clemson, and Dalvin Cook, Florida State. Much like Marcus Mariota two seasons ago, Watson is a clear and heavy favorite for the Heisman in the preseason. Cook sits behind Watson in the early pecking order, but he’s poised to make a run for the award.

Davey O’Brien Award (best quarterback): Watson. Barring injury, this is his award for the taking.

Doak Walker Award (best running back): Cook. He’ll have stiff competition — such as LSU’s Leonard Fournette, among others — but Cook would have a stronger case if FSU wins the conference.

John Mackey Award (best tight end): Jordan Leggett, Clemson. The reigning first-team all-league pick is an early favorite for the award.

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Outland Trophy (best interior lineman): Roderick Johnson, Florida State, and Adam Bisnowaty, Pittsburgh. Johnson’s getting more preseason love, but Bisnowaty is equally integral to his team’s hopes.

Ted Hendricks Award (best defensive end): DeMarcus Walker, Florida State. Opting to return for another season with the Seminoles leaves Walker as one of the leading preseason contenders for this national award.

Butkus Award (best linebacker): Ben Boulware, Clemson, and Devonte Fields, Louisville. Boulware is a no-brainer, while Fields could easily be replaced on this list by his teammate, Keith Kelsey.

Thorpe Award (best defensive back): Derwin James, Florida State. Too soon? Only if the sophomore is slowed by a minor surgical procedure undergone in late July.

Ranking the starting quarterbacks

1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson. As noted, it’s Watson and then everyone else — and not just in the ACC but across the entire FBS.

2. Brad Kaaya, Miami. One season spent learning under Mark Richt will prepare Kaaya for his inevitable turn as a first-round draft pick.

3. Lamar Jackson, Louisville. Jackson’s time is coming, but he needs to hone his passing skills to join Watson and Kaaya as the league’s best.

4. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina. After patiently waiting his turn behind Marquise Williams, Trubisky is ready to compete for all-conference honors.

5. Deondre Francois, Florida State. The Seminoles have high hopes for the redshirt freshman and faith in senior Sean Maguire should he be called upon during the regular season.

6. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh. He’ll limit his turnovers and do just enough with his legs to give another dimension to the Panthers’ running game.

7. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech. This might be a little high for the junior-college transfer, but new Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing quarterbacks.

8. Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech. Thomas took a step back in 2015, much like the Yellow Jackets as a whole, but there’s reason to believe both the team and its quarterback will rebound this fall.

9. Patrick Towles, Boston College. There’s never been any doubt about Towles’ physical ability, but he’ll need to put it all together to lift the Eagles’ offense out of the doldrums.

10. Eric Dungey, Syracuse. Combine the snaps Dungey took as a true freshman to Dino Babers’ can’t-fail offensive system and you have the recipe for a substantial uptick in production under center.

11. Ryan Finley, North Carolina State. It’s safe to assume that Finley’s familiarity with new offensive coordinator Eliah Drinkwitz’s system will give him a leg up in the race to replace Jacoby Brissett.

12. Daniel Jones, Duke. Jones has been a camp sensation as a redshirt freshman, and he may need to sustain it with 2015 Pinstripe Bowl co-MVP Thomas Sirk likely out for the season with his third Achilles injury.

13. John Wolford and Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest. This two-headed quarterback combination should produce better numbers as Wolford and Hinton accumulate more experience against ACC competition.

14. Kurt Benkert, Virginia. The graduate transfer from East Carolina beat out Connor Brewer and incumbent Matt Johns and is a big dual-threat player who could surprise after missing 2015 with a knee injury.

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Top newcomers

Clemson LB Rahshaun Smith. The five-star recruit could quickly slide into a starting or key reserve role at either middle linebacker or on the strong side.

North Carolina DB Myles Dorn. An already impressive defensive backfield adds another talented piece in the four-star prospect, who joined the Tar Heels for the spring semester.

Miami WR Ahmmon Richards. Of the five wide receivers signed in February, Richards seems the most likely to eventually develop into the Hurricanes’ go-to target. Another incoming receiver, Sam Bruce, could make an immediate impact in the return game.

Louisville WR Desmond Fitzpatrick. Adding this four-star receiver will give Lamar Jackson the sort of options he needs to develop greater passing skills to go with his game-breaking ability as a runner.

Games of the year

North Carolina vs. Georgia (in Atlanta), Sept. 3. UNC will still have its doubters, though any pundits still sitting on the fence will jump on the bandwagon should the Tar Heels pull off the upset in Georgia’s backyard.

Clemson at Auburn, Sept. 3. It would be fairly stunning to see Clemson slip up in the opener, but Auburn has circled this matchup as its bounce-back game after two years of middling results.

Florida State vs. Mississippi (in Orlando), Sept. 5. This will be our first chance to see what the Seminoles can bring to the table against a premier opponent.

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Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (in Bristol, Tenn.), Sept. 10. It may not be a great game; all things being equal, the Volunteers should win by 10 or more points. It will be one heck of spectacle, however.

Florida State at Louisville, Sept. 17. This divisional game is followed two weeks later by the Cardinals’ road trip to face Clemson.

North Carolina at Florida State, Oct. 1. This potential preview of the ACC title game comes one week before the Seminoles face rival Miami. Will FSU’s roster get caught looking ahead?

Clemson at Florida State, Oct. 29. As of today, this is the national game of the year during the regular season.

Miami at Notre Dame, Oct. 29. The Hurricanes meeting Notre Dame in South Bend? Yes, please.

Best chance at the Playoff

I don’t totally buy into the idea of Louisville as a Playoff contender, particularly when the Cardinals cannot be realistically viewed as anything better than the third-best team in their own division. Louisville will be good — perhaps hitting nine or more wins during the regular season — but not quite good enough to win the Atlantic Division.

Nor do I expect a team to rise out of the Coastal Division and charge toward Playoff contention, much like North Carolina a season ago. It’s once again a strong and deep division: UNC, Miami and Pittsburgh are in very good shape in the preseason, and it would be foolish to discount Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in the race for the divisional crown.

It’s really down to two teams, as has been the case for the past half-decade: Florida State and Clemson — or Clemson and Florida State, depending on your point of view. You can’t go wrong with either team, whether you pick Clemson to claim the national title that proved elusive in January or lean toward the combination of talent, depth, confidence and coaching acumen that separates Florida State from nearly every team in the FBS.

That I’m going with Florida State is a testament to the program Jimbo Fisher has built in Tallahassee, one that in last year’s “rebuilding season” nonetheless won 10 games and reached a New Year’s Six bowl. Viewed as a whole, the level of depth and talent seen on FSU’s roster is matched perhaps only by Alabama, the gold standard for annual championship contention.

Add in the fact that FSU draws Clemson at home — coming off a bye week, no less — and you have the makings of a team prepared to leap back into the Playoff field. And what of Clemson? Only a South Carolina fan would discount the Tigers’ ability to once again run the table leading into the national title game — and then claim the program’s first championship in more than three decades.

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