College football 2016: Independents preview
Sixth in an 11-part series. Read previous entries on the AAC, C-USA, MAC and Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
Even as all eyes remain glued to Notre Dame’s ongoing quarterback competition, the Fighting Irish enter fall camp focused on the two positive developments to come from last season.
One: That the Irish are talented enough — quick enough, fast enough, physical enough — to hang with and defeat any team in college football. That was not the case through Brian Kelly’s first handful of seasons; take note of the way Alabama decimated a previously undefeated Notre Dame team in the Orange Bowl to claim the 2012 national championship. Yet things have changed.
Two: That the Irish can feel confident in either would-be starting quarterback. Elsewhere across the country, the specter of a similar competition might have coaches fearful of their shadow — scared of making the wrong decision, essentially.
2016 college football TV schedule
That’s not so in South Bend, where both DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire have proved themselves more than capable of shouldering the load for a team with College Football Playoff hopes.
Zaire is a perfect 3-0 as Notre Dame’s starter, and seemed headed for a superb 2015 season before suffering an ankle injury in September. Kizer went 8-3 as Zaire’s replacement despite a troubling lack of experience, growing in the role and developing momentum heading into the offseason.
In either case, I don’t think the Irish can lose. Will that be true for the Irish as a whole? There are just a select few teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision with realistic goals of perfection; Notre Dame is one of those teams.
Projected order of finish
Rank among the FBS' 128 teams in parentheses
1. Notre Dame (No. 4)
2. Brigham Young (No. 42)
3. Army (No. 94)
4. Massachusetts (No. 128)
Preseason all-conference
Offense
QB: DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
RB: Josh Adams, Notre Dame
RB: Marquis Young, Massachusetts
WR: Nick Kurtz, BYU
WR: Edgar Poe, Army
TE: Durham Smythe, Notre Dame
OL: Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
OL: Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
OL: Tejan Koroma, BYU
OL: Ului Lapuaho, BYU
OL: Brad Wilcox, BYU
Defense
DL: John Voit, Army
DL: Jarron Jones, Notre Dame
DL: Daniel Cage, Notre Dame
DL: Isaac Rochell, Notre Dame
LB: Jeremy Timpf, Army
LB: Andrew King, Army
LB: Harvey Langi, BYU
CB: Cole Luke, Notre Dame
CB: Brandon Jackson, Army
S: Max Redfield, Notre Dame
S: Kai Nacua, BYU
Specialists
K: Justin Yoon, Notre Dame
P: Jonny Linehan, BYU
RET: C.J. Sanders, Notre Dame
Best units
Quarterback: Notre Dame and BYU (tie). If the Cougars get the edge in depth — see below — Notre Dame’s eventual starter, whether Malik Zaire or DeShone Kizer, will be a major weapon for the Fighting Irish.
Running back: BYU. Notre Dame’s unit is strong, but the Cougars’ combination of Algernon Brown and Jamaal Williams is impressive.
Wide receiver and tight end: BYU. While Notre Dame’s talent took a major hit with the announcement that Alize Jones would miss the 2016 season, the Cougars have accumulated enough talent to help Tanner Mangum take another step forward as a passer.
Offensive line: Notre Dame. It’s tweaked with the addition of a few new faces, but I picture Notre Dame’s offensive front quickly developing into a strength by the end of September.
Defensive line: Notre Dame. The interior of the defensive line looks very much like a strength, particularly if Jarron Jones can make a full return from last year’s injury.
Linebacker: Army. Yeah, the Cadets have a pair of underrated defenders on the second level in Andrew King and Jeremy Timpf.
Secondary: Notre Dame. The defensive line will help this secondary, which has the talent to excel but must do a far better job forcing turnovers.
Special teams: Notre Dame. The Irish have found a reliable kicker in Justin Yoon and can expect another productive season in the return game from C.J. Sanders.
National award candidates
Heisman Trophy: Malik Zaire or DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame. As always, the starting quarterback for Notre Dame is a preseason contender for the Heisman.
John Mackey Award (best tight end): Durham Smythe, Notre Dame. Likewise with Notre Dame’s starting tight end, even if Smythe won’t match Alize Jones’ likely impact at the position.
Notre Dame tight end Alize Jones to miss 2016 season
Outland Trophy (best interior lineman): Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame. McGlinchey is more than ready to contend for All-America status as the new linchpin of the Irish’s front five.
Lou Groza Award (best kicker): Justin Yoon, Notre Dame. After making 15 of his 17 attempts as a freshman last fall, Yoon should only grow more consistent as he grows stronger and more experienced.
Ranking the starting quarterbacks
1. DeShone Kizer or Malik Zaire, Notre Dame. Though Brian Kelly could opt for some sort of a BYU-like two-headed tandem, it’s far more likely that one of these two supremely qualified starters earns the starting job during fall camp — giving the Irish have an outstanding contributor in reserve should the starter go down to injury.
2. Tanner Mangum and Taysom Hill, BYU. Look for BYU offensive coordinator Ty Detmer to find ways to tailor a system that utilizes both Mangum and Hill, with the former the more prototypical passer and the latter a multifaceted offensive tool.
3. Andrew Ford, UMass. Ford has the pedigree — he began his college career at Virginia Tech — to grab the starting job, though it’s hard to imagine he’ll come close to matching Blake Frohnapfel’s production from a season ago.
4. Chris Carter, Army. Carter is injured and not expected back until the last week of August, but he's the best option the Black Knights have after junior Ahmad Bradshaw left school on Aug. 15, a little more than two weeks before kicking off the season against Temple. Malik McGue, one of four freshman QBs in camp, is running the first team offense in the meantime.
Top newcomers
BYU WR Jonah Trinnaman. He might be the starter opposite Nick Kurtz, or at worst a very integral part of the Cougars’ passing game under new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer.
Notre Dame LB Daelin Hayes. The Irish reeled yet another championship-level recruiting class in February, with no signee more impressive than this five-star player out of California.
BYU DB Troy Warner. If not by the opener, look for Warner to carve out a role in BYU’s secondary rotation at some point during freshman season.
Notre Dame WRs Javon McKinley and Chase Claypool. The four-star recruits will be needed as rookies as the Irish look for productive targets at receiver.
Games of the year
Notre Dame at Texas, Sept. 4. Though the Irish got the better of this matchup with room to spare last fall, the Longhorns are eyeing this as a potential statement game to kick off the season.
BYU at Utah, Sept. 10. Having missed each other during a scheduled two-year break from the series, the Cougars and Utes follow up a matchup in last season’s Las Vegas Bowl with another friendly meeting in early September.
Stanford at Notre Dame, Oct. 15. After falling to Stanford in a classic last November, the Irish hope to use home-field advantage to notch a season-making win.
BYU at Boise State, Oct. 20. The Cougars have no shortage of intriguing games in September and October, but this one stands out due to its importance to both BYU’s final record and the Broncos’ quest for a New Year’s Six bowl.
Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 26. This might determine whether or not the Irish reach the Playoff.
Army vs. Navy, Dec. 10 (in Baltimore). It’s been a few years since Army defeated its bitter rival.
Best chance at the Playoff
Army is a contender for the postseason and may head into its season finale against rival Navy needing a win to reach bowl eligibility. It’s easy to take note of the Cadets’ growth under third-year coach Jeff Monken.
UMass is a bit of a disaster. Having flopped as members of the Mid-American Conference, the Minutemen are now trying their hands as an Independent, in a move that will do little to increase the team’s dismal win-loss record while placing the program’s future on the FBS level in rocky waters.
BYU should be fine — perhaps not 10-win fine, but good enough to justify the hiring of Kalani Sitake and ratchet up expectations heading into his first season. The big question? Once again, the Cougars must manage a schedule overflowing with high-profile competition during the season’s first two months.
And then there’s Notre Dame. Are the Irish contenders for the Playoff? Yes, absolutely. There are some holes, including in the passing game; a competition at quarterback that must be decided in August; a new look along both lines; and an overall lack of experience that some detractors highlight as the team’s Achilles heel.
Focus on the positives. Last season showed how Brian Kelly has stockpiled a different sort of athlete: Notre Dame is no longer slow and plodding but as athletic as any team on its schedule. And rather than defined by a single player — a Manti Te’o, an Everett Golson, a Will Fuller or Jaylon Smith — the Irish seem built as a team strongly centered on Kelly’s specific vision for the program. Is that enough? When coupled with a schedule that brings many high-profile opponents to South Bend, it should keep the Irish in the thick of the hunt for the College Football Playoff.
QUARTERBACK COMPETITIONS ENTERING THE 2016 SEASON
