College football 2016: Mountain West Conference preview
Fourth in an 11-part series. Read previous entries on the AAC, C-USA and MAC.
It began in the wake of San Diego State’s disappointing opening to last season, with an article in the local newspaper calling it time for the Aztecs to make a coaching change — declaring that SDSU needed to move on from Rocky Long, the former defensive coordinator promoted to the top spot following the 2010 season.
The article led to a poll, then to an online petition. The poll’s results were unsurprising: More voters than not questioned the program’s trajectory under Long’s direction.
“People, their patience level and their memory are very, very short,” Long told USA TODAY Sports this spring. “It’s ridiculous. People that have been fans of this program, or want to be supporters, have a very short memory. Because 15 years ago or 20 years ago, at 7-6 they would’ve been celebrating. Now they’re complaining. That’s just the way it is.”
A funny thing happened on the way to a coaching change: SDSU rolled off 10 wins in a row to cap last season, the second-longest active winning streak in college football heading into September, while Long cemented his place as the current and future face of the program.
2016 college football TV schedule
And little less than a year later, SDSU stands ready to embrace its increasing expectations. The Aztecs still fly under the radar despite the extended winning streak; old habits die hard, as fans, pundits and prognosticators have seemingly clung to the image of SDSU as chronic overachiever rather than a team destined for New Year’s Six contention.
SDSU will battle perception along with its upcoming slate of competition, which includes a pair of bolded nonconference games — against California and Northern Illinois — and key Mountain West Conference matchups with Utah State and Nevada.
Boise State has been through this dance before, during its decade-plus rise behind a series of talented head coaches. In the big picture, the Broncos are where the Aztecs want to be — even if Long, his staff and the roster despise the inevitable comparison.
But there’s a difference in the program’s favor. In prestige, respect and name recognition, Boise State is where SDSU wants to be; when it comes to 2016, however, the Broncos can only look toward the Aztecs with envy.
Projected order of finish
Rank among the FBS' 128 teams in parentheses
MOUNTAIN
1. Boise State (No. 19)
2. Utah State (No. 46)
3. Air Force (No. 54)
4. New Mexico (No. 67)
5. Colorado State (No. 79)
6. Wyoming (No. 107)
WEST
1. San Diego State (No. 13)
2. Nevada (No. 61)
3. San Jose State (No. 86)
4. UNLV (No. 93)
5. Fresno State (No. 117)
6. Hawaii (No. 121)
Ohio State tops AP's all-time Top 100 ranking
Preseason all-conference
OFFENSE
QB: Brett Rypien, Boise State
RB: Donnell Pumphrey, San Diego State
RB: Jeremy McNichols, Boise State
WR: Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State
WR: Devonte Boyd, UNLV
TE: Billy Freeman, San Jose State
OL: Jake Simonich, Utah State
OL: Nico Siragusa, San Diego State
OL: Austin Stephens, Utah State
OL: Chase Roullier, Wyoming
OL: Fred Zerblis, Colorado State
DEFENSE
DL: Nik D’Avanzo, New Mexico
DL: Travis Seefeldt, Utah State
DL: Ricky Ali’ifua, Utah State
DL: Alex Barrett, San Diego State
LB: Dakota Cox, New Mexico
LB: Calvin Munson, San Diego State
LB: Christian Tago, Utah State
CB: Damontae Kazee, San Diego State
CB: Dameon Barber, Nevada
S: Andrew Wingard, Wyoming
S: Weston Steelhammer, Air Force
SPECIALISTS
K: Tyler Rausa, Boise State
P: Michael Carrizosa, San Jose State
RET: Rashaad Penny, San Diego State
Best units
Quarterback: Boise State. Brett Rypien has no competition for the title of the league’s best quarterback. Better yet for the Broncos, he’s only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.
Running back: San Diego State. Donnel Pumphrey has been criminally unrecognized during his first three seasons, though that should change very early into the fall.
Wide receiver and tight end: Boise State. The Broncos have accumulated a very solid list of pass-catchers at Rypien’s disposal in the passing game, including all-conference pick Thomas Sperbeck, which should make this passing game the league’s best.
Offensive line: Nevada. The team as a whole might not have enough in the tank to unseat SDSU in the West Division, but this offensive line has the ability to control the line of scrimmage and keep the Wolf Pack competitive in every game.
Defensive line: San Diego State. With Alex Barrett and Kyle Kelley a formidable pair at end, no team in the MWC rivals the Aztecs’ talent up front.
Linebacker: San Diego State and Boise State (tie). Both units rank among the very best on the Group of Five level, while SDSU’s Calvin Munson is an All-America candidate.
Secondary: San Diego State. The league’s best defense is rounded out by its best secondary, which has another potential All-America selection in senior Damontae Kazee.
Special teams: San Diego State and Hawaii (tie). The Aztecs have the stronger returner in Rashaad Penny, but the Warriors have the league’s most well-rounded kicking game.
National award candidates
Heisman Trophy: Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State. If the Aztecs end up winning 10 or more games — and here’s guessing they will — Pumphrey must be taken seriously as a dark-horse Heisman contender.
Doak Walker Award (best running back): Pumphrey. It’s more likely that Pumphrey ends up a stronger contender for the Doak Walker, which weighs production in addition to team success.
Ray Guy Award (best punter): Michael Carrizosa, San Jose State. His booming leg will be of even greater use for a defense set to take a step forward in 2016.
Butkus Award (best linebacker): Calvin Munson, San Diego State. Much like Pumphrey, Munson will be in line for national recognition should the Aztecs be in top-15 contention come November.
Ranking the starting quarterbacks
1. Brett Rypien, Boise State. Rypien is the Broncos’ best quarterback since Kellen Moore and perhaps the best NFL prospect the program has ever had at the position.
2. Kenny Potter, San Jose State. Potter is ready to blossom in his second season as the Spartans’ go-to quarterback.
3. Nick Stevens, Colorado State. The league’s best passer this side of Rypien, Stevens is a definite all-conference performer despite Colorado State’s dearth of proven receivers.
4. Johnny Stanton, UNLV. The former Nebraska transfer is a player to watch in the Mountain West.
5. Kent Myers, Utah State. As long as he’s healthy, Myers gives the Aggies a puncher’s chance at leaping ahead of Boise State in the Mountain Division.
6. Tyler Stewart, Nevada. He was serviceable a year ago — particularly during a solid midseason stretch — but serviceable isn’t good enough, given Stewart’s own ability and the program’s friendly offense.
7. Lamar Jordan, New Mexico. After a bit of a sophomore slump, Jordan aims to improve as a passer while maintaining his impact on the ground — and if he slips, the Lobos have two quality reserves waiting to take control of the offense.
8. Christian Chapman, San Diego State. Donnell Pumphrey will carry the load for SDSU’s offense, but the team’s hopes of being a national contender hinge largely on Chapman’s play as the full-time starter.
9. Nate Romine, Air Force. Romine’s ability as a thrower should allow the Falcons to continue last season’s uptick in pass-game production.
10. Ikaika Woolsey, Hawaii. Woolsey’s experience gives him a leg up on the competition, and a shift into new coach Nick Rolovich’s system should lead to an increase in overall production.
11. Zach Kline, Fresno State. It could be the well-traveled Kline, now on his fourth NCAA institution, or one of redshirt freshman Chason Virgil or junior-college transfer Christian Rossi.
12. Josh Allen, Wyoming. Allen has the faith of Wyoming’s coaching staff and is coming off a strong spring, but his lack of experience is a clear concern.
Top newcomers
Colorado State OL Paul Thurston. An off-and-on starter and contributor at Nebraska, Thurston will move right into a starting role along the interior of Colorado State’s strong offensive front.
Nevada RB Akeel Lynch. Adding the Penn State transfer gives Nevada yet another big-play option for its healthy running game.
Boise State DE Curtis Weaver. One of several Southern California-area products in Boise State’s signing class, Weaver has the size and offer list to suggest the potential for early playing time.
Games of the year
Washington State at Boise State, Sept. 10. A win here would send a loud message to the Broncos’ competition in the Mountain West and across the Group of Five.
California at San Diego State, Sept. 10. It’s a must-win game for the Aztecs’ New Year’s Six hopes.
Utah State at USC, Sept. 10. It’s not a great matchup on paper, but that the Aggies come into town between USC’s games against Alabama and Stanford should make this interesting.
Navy at Air Force, Oct. 1. That Navy comes to Colorado Springs aids the Falcons’ quest for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
San Diego State at Utah State, Oct. 28. SDSU’s stiffest league test comes in a road trip to meet the Aggies in late October.
Boise State at Air Force, Nov. 25. Ensuring a divisional title would demand that Boise State knock off an Air Force team that has recently had its number.
Best chance at the playoff
I’d wager that at least six and as many as nine Mountain West teams will reach the postseason in 2016, which speaks to the level of talent and depth that paces the league behind only the American Athletic Conference on the Group of Five level.
And two stand out above the rest, of course — and not just by a whisker but by heads and shoulders, towering over the competition to rank among the top 25 teams in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision, in my estimation.
It’s impossible to ignore Boise State, which has the coaching — a terrific combination of a top-tier head coach, Bryan Harsin, and a number of outstanding assistants — and the overall talent to chase another access-bowl bid. What’s missing? Not much, outside of perhaps a slight dose of inexperience along the defensive line.
Why San Diego State is a New Year's Six bowl contender
The Broncos are easily deserving of a national ranking and capable of much more, particularly if the coaching staff can address any lingering concerns in time for the early slate of Washington State and Oregon State, let alone league dates with Utah State and Air Force.
Yet San Diego State is the team to beat, and perhaps, along with Houston, the premier team on the Group of Five ranks. There’s experience: 14 starters return from a year ago. That experience is matched by coaching continuity; both qualities alone provide a degree of separation from the Aztecs’ conference peers.
Add in the league’s best offensive player, Donnell Pumphrey, a definite Heisman Trophy contender, and the league’s top defender, Damontae Kazee. Remember the nonconference slate, a just-right mix of games winnable games against notable competition in California and Northern Illinois.
Given all these factors, it’s reasonable to include SDSU among the upper crust of the Group of Five and the precious few number of teams across the entire FBS capable of an undefeated regular season. Talk about expectations.
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