College football 2016: Sun Belt Conference preview
Fifth in an 11-part series. Read previous entries on the AAC, C-USA, MAC and Mountain West.
The Sun Belt Conference’s image problem — that of a league well off the beaten path of national contention — is exacerbated by its turn through nonconference play, a series of annual disappointments from which not even the league’s frontrunners are immune.
A year ago, for example, the Sun Belt’s top three finishers went a combined 3-6 in nonconference play, with wins against Wyoming, Old Dominion and Western Michigan. Arkansas State, the eventual conference champion, lost to Southern California, Missouri and Toledo by a combined 86 points.
This won’t change in 2016. The same threesome — the Red Wolves, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern — again lead the pack heading into fall camp; the same group will struggle in nonconference games against Auburn, Tennessee, Miami (Fla.) and Georgia Tech.
2016 college football TV schedule
So the Sun Belt needs to be viewed through a different lens: Not compared to the majority of the Football Bowl Subdivision — particularly those on the Power Five level — but against its fellow Group of Five peers.
The league looks stronger against this level of competition. Though depth remains a problem, the Sun Belt top three should proudly hold its own against the same groupings across the Group of Five ranks.
Maybe the Mountaineers, Eagles and Red Wolves aren’t quite to the level of Houston, Memphis and Temple, to cite the American Athletic Conference. It’s still a strong foundation upon which the Sun Belt can build the makings of a conference worthy of being included in the race for an access-bowl bid.
Projected order of finish
Rank among the FBS' 128 teams in parentheses
1. Appalachian State (No. 44)
2. Arkansas State (No. 52)
3. Georgia Southern (No. 77)
4. Louisiana-Lafayette (No. 83)
5. Troy (No. 91)
6. Idaho (No. 92)
7. Georgia State (No. 98)
8. South Alabama (No. 100)
9. Texas State (No. 116)
10. Louisiana-Monroe (No. 119)
11. New Mexico State (No. 123)
Preseason all-conference
OFFENSE
QB: Taylor Lamb, Appalachian State
RB: Matt Breida, Georgia Southern
RB: Larry Rose III, New Mexico State
WR: Penny Hart, Georgia State
WR: Robert Davis, Georgia State
TE: Gerald Everett, South Alabama
OL: Jemar Clark, Arkansas State
OL: Colton Jackson, Arkansas State
OL: Andy Kwon, Georgia Southern
OL: Parker Collins, Appalachian State
OL: Joseph Bacchus, Arkansas State
DEFENSE
DL: Ja’Von Rolland-Jones, Arkansas State
DL: Jay Ellison, Georgia Southern
DL: Waylon Robertson, Arkansas State
DL: Bernard Dawson, Georgia Southern
LB: John Law, Appalachian State
LB: Otha Peters, Louisiana-Lafayette
LB: Xavier Woodson-Luster, Arkansas State
CB: Latrell Gibbs, Appalachian State
CB: Jeremy Reaves, South Alabama
S: Cody Brown, Arkansas State
S: Alex Gray, Appalachian State
SPECIALISTS
K: Austin Rehkow, Idaho
P: Austin Rehkow, Idaho
RET: Xavier Johnson, South Alabama
Best units
Quarterback: Appalachian State. The Sun Belt’s most effective passer a year ago, Taylor Lamb should be even better in 2016.
Running back: Appalachian State. While other teams have stronger individual runners — such as Matt Breida at Georgia Southern or Larry Rose III at New Mexico State — the Mountaineers have simply outstanding depth.
Wide receiver and tight end: Georgia State. The Panthers tout the league’s most productive receiver pairing in Penny Hart and Robert Davis.
Offensive line: Arkansas State. Barring injury, the Red Wolves’ line will dominate opposing defensive fronts more often than not in league action.
Alabama, Clemson lead preseason Amway Coaches Poll
Defensive line: Arkansas State. That Arkansas State is so strong on both lines is reason enough to put it alongside Appalachian State stop the standings.
Linebacker: Arkansas State. Then there are the linebackers, who combine with the line to give ASU by far the league’s best front seven.
Secondary: Appalachian State. This talented secondary will come in handy during early-season matchups with Miami (Fla.), Akron and Tennessee.
Special teams: Idaho. Austin Rehkow is a national-award candidate as both a kicker and a punter.
National award candidates
Doak Walker Award (best running back): Matt Breida, Georgia Southern. In terms of pure numbers, at least, Breida should be included in the early conversation.
Ray Guy Award (best punter): Austin Rehkow, Idaho. He’ll continue to handle both kicking duties for the Vandals — and do so at an all-conference clip — but Rehkow is best as a punter.
Ranking the starting quarterbacks
1. Jeremy Lamb, Appalachian State. The reigning all-league pick is in line for similar accolades in 2016.
2. Favian Upshaw and Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern. The Eagles’ two-quarterback system worked well under Willie Fritz, now at Tulane, and should continue to be successful behind new coach Tyson Summers and his staff.
3. Brandon Silvers, Troy. Perhaps the Sun Belt’s most overlooked quarterback, Silvers should benefit from his increased familiarity with Neal Brown’s offensive style.
4. Matt Linehan, Idaho. Linehan’s growth between his freshman and sophomore seasons bodes well for his all-conference potential in 2016.
5. Chad Voytik, Arkansas State. The Pittsburgh transfer should secure the starting job and play well after making a combined 15 starts during his three seasons with the Panthers.
6. Tyler Jones, Texas State. The Bobcats should feel confident in Jones’ ability to deliver a consistent product, though the new coaching staff might have a shorter leash with former Missouri transfer Eddie Printz waiting in reserve.
7. Garrett Smith, Louisiana-Monroe. The linchpin of the Warhawks’ offensive efforts, Smith must remain healthy should his team have any shot of competing for a bowl bid.
8. Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State. He's the incumbent, but just as it seemed he had locked up the role with the departure of TCU transfer Tyler Matthews, Rogers was arrested for misdemeanor battery on Aug. 19. He might be the best of what the Aggies have left, but it's a bad situation.
9. Jordan Davis, Louisiana-Lafayette. He has talent but no experience, making the quarterback position a concern for the Ragin’ Cajuns entering fall camp.
10. Dallas Davis, South Alabama. The sophomore has a slight edge in the race for the starting job, but he’d have to spend at least the first few weeks of the regular season looking over his shoulder at the Jaguars’ other two options.
11. Emiere Scaife, Aaron Winchester or Conner Manning, Georgia State. The only certainty in this competition is that not one of the three contenders will come close to matching Nick Arbuckle’s fantastic two-year run as the starter.
Top newcomers
South Alabama DT Zach Befort. Adding Befort from a Kansas junior college will help the Jaguars improve upon last season’s abysmal performance stopping the run.
Texas State RB Tyler Tutt. The opportunity is there for Tutt to earn early carries as the Bobcats replace last year’s two leading running backs.
Georgia Southern DB Monquavion Brinson. Tyson Summers’ first signing class included a number of players who could contribute from the start, including this three-star cornerback from Atlanta.
Arkansas State DT Dee Liner. The former Alabama transfer might be too big, strong and agile for Sun Belt interior offensive linemen to handle.
Arkansas State WR Cameron Echols-Luper. After sitting out last season as a transfer from TCU, Echols-Luper should have a profound impact for the Red Wolves as a receiver and returner.
Games of the year
Toledo at Arkansas State, Sept. 3. An intriguing matchup between two upper-crust teams from the Group of Five will provide the Sun Belt with an early opportunity to make an impression.
Miami (Fla.) at Appalachian State, Sept. 17. Yes, the Hurricanes are coming to Boone, N.C., in a major national opportunity for Scott Satterfield and Appalachian State.
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State, Oct. 5. The Red Wolves won’t face Appalachian State this fall, making this game and the one listed below the likely deciders in the final standings.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern, Oct. 27. The Mountaineers got the better of their longtime Southern Conference foes a season ago.
Best chance at the playoff
To get this out of the way from the start: Approximately 40 or so teams would need to disband in November for a team from the Sun Belt Conference to factor into the four-team College Football Playoff.
There’s nonetheless a very interesting top threesome to consider heading into September. Alone, this trio — Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern — matches up very well with the same top group from the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA.
But it doesn’t quite meet the standard set by the American Athletic Conference or Mountain West Conference, which makes the eventual Sun Belt champion a longshot to claim an access-bowl bid to a New Year’s Six game.
That’s OK. The Red Wolves, Mountaineers and Eagles are capable of winning nine games during the regular season — if not cracking double digits, as Appalachian State did a season ago. Another two teams should get to six wins, and as many as four should be in the mix for bowl eligibility come November.
The greatest concern, in fact, is that the top three cannibalize themselves during league play — even if the Red Wolves and Mountaineers don’t meet — to cause a logjam atop the standings, in turn leaving the Sun Belt with multiple teams hovering between six and eight wins but no clear frontrunner.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S BEST PLAYERS AT EACH POSITION
