COLTS

Best and worst moves by Ryan Grigson

Nat Newell
nat.newell@indystar.com

Ryan Grigson was fired as Indianapolis Colts general manager Saturday after five seasons. The good moves he made were certainly outweighed by the bad, but it's interesting how little attention they received during his tenure. Here's a look at his five best and five worst moves with the team:

BEST
Entering Week 17, T.Y. Hilton leads the NFL in receiving yards.
T.Y. HILTON (AND DONTE MONCRIEF)

Grigson, clearly, should have only drafted receivers in the third round. Hilton is fifth among receivers who entered the league since 2012 with 5,861, and led the NFL in receiving yards this season. He is already 22th all-time in career receiving yards by a third-round draft pick.

Moncrief hasn't been as successful — 1,484 yards, 16 touchdowns — but he's only had 19 starts. They have the potential to be a complementary pairing for years to come.

Vontae Davis came to Indy with some baggage, but has proven worth the risk.
VONTAE DAVIS TRADE

It was a risk but a risk that has paid off handsomely. Here's what then-IndyStar columnist Bob Kravitz said when the Colts traded a second-round pick for Davis:

Let's just say, there's a reason the talent-poor Dolphins were willing to part ways with the former first-round pick.

They questioned his conditioning. They suspended him once for reportedly showing up to a Saturday walk-through hungover/still drunk. He got into a fight with former Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall, who seems to get in fights with almost everybody.

If Davis keeps his nose clean and commits to the program, this will be a significant feather in general manager Ryan Grigson's cap.

If Davis has issues — "What happened in Miami is in the past," was all he would say about past indiscretions — then the Colts will have given up a likely top 40 pick for an underachiever.

Count this deal as a feather in Grigson's cap. In return for a pick that became Jamar Taylor (23 starts at cornerback in four seasons, 14 of them this season in Cleveland), the Colts have received Pro Bowl-caliber play from Davis, including 13 interceptions in five seasons. Injuries were an issue this year and age may be creeping up on Davis, but this deal was a definite win for Grigson.

Frank Gore has been a steadying force in the backfield this season.
LOW-PRICED FREE AGENTS

Grigson, deservedly, gets criticized for his big splashes in free agency (see below), but he's done quite well with players signed for contracts that averaged $4 million or less (salary information from spotrac.com).

>> Frank Gore was thought to be on his last legs when he was signed in 2015, but he gained 967 yards last season, broke a historic drought of 100-yard rushers for the Colts, and finished with 1,025 yards, the first Colts' back to rush for more than 1,000 yards since Joseph Addai in 2007 and first back 33 or older to reach the mark since John Riggins in 1984.

>> Mike Adams was almost an afterthought when he was brought in late in the 2014 free agency process. Then he made the Pro Bowl in 2014 and '15 with 12 interceptions and five fumble recoveries.

>> Erik Walden was the most criticized signee in the 2013 class, but has turned out to be the best of the group. He's totaled 23 sacks, including 11 this season, well worth the $4 million per year he received.

>> Grigson likes his projects, and former Canadian Football Leaguer Jerrell Freeman is one that paid off. He was a versatile inside linebacker with more than 500 tackles, four interceptions and 12 sacks in four seasons.

>> Matt Hasselbeck went 5-3 in eight starts, providing more than the Colts could have expected when Andrew Luck went down last season. For three years, the Colts and their fans didn't need to worry if a backup quarterback was needed.

>> Cory Redding was brought in as a veteran presence with experience in Pagano's system and provided solid production (116 tackles, 10 sacks) at defensive end for three seasons.

>> Donnie Avery (a career-high 781 yards, though with just a 48.4 percent catch rate) was a decent No. 3 receiver for a rookie Luck for $665,000.

>> Ahmad Bradshaw couldn't stay healthy, but rushed for 696 yards, had 406 receiving and 13 total touchdowns in 19 games for around $3 million.

>> Robert Turbin, Scott Tolzien and Dwight Lowery also have been useful, inexpensive signings. They haven't all worked out — Donald Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Samson Satele, Tom Zbikowski, Hakeem Nicks, Nate Irving and Antonio Cromartie were more miss than hit — but Grigson has had success with lower-level free agents.

Dwayne Allen (left) and Coby Fleener (right) gave the Colts a potent tight end combo.
DWAYNE ALLEN AND COBY FLEENER

There is no question Allen and Fleener have their flaws, but Grigson picked two starting-caliber tight ends in one draft.

While Allen is injury-prone and has been inconsistent as a receiver, he's a good blocker — when not forced to take on Pro Bowl edge rushers 1-on-1 — and has 19 touchdowns on 199 targets.

Fleener had his issues with drops, but he was a weapon, averaging as many as 15.2 yards per reception in 2014. He had 2,154 yards with 17 touchdowns in four seasons with the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) changes the play at the line of scrimmage in the first half of  their NFL football game Sunday, November 20, 206, afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium.
ANDREW LUCK

It's entirely likely the decision to take Luck had been made before Grigson was hired. And while the Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf debate was real, there was a clear consensus that Luck was the better prospect than Robert Griffin III.

And while there may be a debate over just how good Luck is, he's a fifth-year quarterback with three playoff victories, 43 regular-season wins and three Pro Bowl appearances.

Grigson is the general manager of record for this pick.

BAD
Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Bjoern Werner (92) catches his breath in the second quarter of the final preseason game against the Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium on Thursday, September 3, 2015.
DRAFTING BJOERN WERNER (AND OTHER DEFENSIVE PLAYERS)

No one bats 1.000 on first-round picks, but missing on Werner in 2013 had a cascading effect for the Colts.

Robert Mathis had 19.5 sacks, setting up the perfect situation for a promising rookie to learn from a veteran and be ready to step in when called upon. But Mathis got hurt and missed all of 2014, and Werner wasn't ready, producing just four sacks. The Colts went from having a pass rush to trying to piece it together; a process that continues to this day.

Not surprisingly, Mathis was slow to return to form in 2015 and the Colts were left with no pass rush and having to waive Werner. They added an aging Trent Cole, but he was not a difference-maker. Jonathan Newsome, who showed promise with 6.5 sacks in 2014, was unproductive and released after an arrest in 2015.

Walden has provided 11 sacks this season but he's in the last season of his contract, as is Mathis (five sacks). The leaves defensive tackle David Parry with the most sacks of players under contract with three, and the Colts in need of an almost complete rebuild of their outside linebackers and pass rush heading into 2017.

And it doesn't stop there.

The entire 2013 draft was a bust. Third-rounder Hugh Thornton has spent this season on injured reserve, fourth-rounder Khaled Holmes and fifth-round Montori Hughes were released. Sixth rounder John Boyett didn't make it out of training camp and seventh-rounders Justice Cunningham and Kerwynn Williams lasted a combined 26 games.

The Colts have had a heavy offensive lean in their drafts, not an unreasonable approach when Luck is your quarterback. But that made it imperative they hit on the players they selected.

They haven't:

>> Josh Chapman (5th round, 2012): Released. 15 starts.

>> Tim Fugger (7th round, 2012): Released. zero games.

>> Werner (1st round, 2013): Released, see above. 16 starts.

>> Montori Hughes (5th round, 2013): Released. one start.

>> John Boyett (6th round, 2013): Released. zero games.

>> Newsome (5th round, 2014): Released. three starts.

>> Andrew Jackson (6th round, 2014): Released. zero starts.

>> D'Joun Smith (3rd round, 2015): Released. zero starts.

>> Henry Anderson (3rd round, 2015): A very promising start was halted by a knee injury. He didn't show the same playmaking skills this season, but deserves more time to recover from injuries and recapture his previous form.

>> Clayton Geathers (4th round, 2015): Shows a lot of promise as a hybrid safety-linebacker who flashes ability in coverage. Needs to stay healthy, however.

>> Parry (5th round, 2015): Has started every game since joining the team and has been more productive this season, increasing his tackles (31 to 46) and sacks (one to three).

>> Amarlo Herrera (6th round, 2015): Released. zero starts.

>> Hassan Ridgeway (4th round, 2016): Made five starts with 21 tackles and 1.5 sacks this season.

>> Antonio Morrison (4th round, 2016): Showed some promise filling in for D'Qwell Jackson at the end of the season as an insider linebacker on running downs.

>> T.J. Green (2nd round, 2016): He's fast and has started three games this season, but hasn't answered questions about his ability to cover receivers and has struggled to tackle at times.

Trent Richardson's Colts career didn't last long and is a black mark on Ryan Grigson's resume.
TRENT RICHARDSON TRADE

Let's be clear: Almost everyone liked Grigson's decision to deal a first-round pick for Richardson when it happened. Kravitz on the deal:

... Richardson's addition gives the Colts the kind of stud running back they haven't had since Edgerrin James. And he's not just a runner. He's a very good pass catcher, no small addition for a team that was at the bottom of the league in completions to running backs last year. He's strong in pass protection, something the Colts desperately could have used last week in that final drive against Miami.

Instead, Richardson was a complete bust, averaging 3.1 yards per carry in two seasons. He was a healthy scratch versus Denver in the 2014 playoffs and then missed the trip to New England for the AFC Championship game. He hasn't played in the NFL since.

The Cleveland Browns took Johnny Manziel with the pick, and the choices immediately after that weren't inspiring: Dee Ford (18 starts for Kansas City), Darqueze Dennard (four starts for Cincinnati), Jason Verrett (22 starts for San Diego) and Marcus Smith (zero starts for Philadelphia).

But the return on first-round picks during the Grigson era has been damning and no one will forget the Richardson trade.

Indianapolis Colts free safety LaRon Landry can't get a handle on Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson who escaped on a big fourth and one in the third quarter. Indianapolis faced Denver in the NFL playoffs Sunday, January 11, 2015.
2013 FREE AGENT CLASS

Everyone knows the return on the investment in free agents is traditionally, poor. You're often paying players when they have their maximum amount of leverage and are entering an age bracket where they're more likely to get hurt.

And the Colts' 2013 free agent class reflects that:

>> Gosder Cherilus was a very good right tackle his first season, but he was 29 and being given a five-year contract with $15.5 million guaranteed. He got hurt in 2014 and was released before the 2015 season, settling in as a reserve for Tampa Bay.

>> It surprised no one when LaRon Landry was suspended for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drug policy during the 2014 season and was released after an uneven two seasons in Indianapolis. The price? $11 million guaranteed.

>> Ricky Jean Francois was a backup defensive lineman for San Francisco who was guaranteed $8.5 million by the Colts only to prove he was best suited for a backup role (where he has returned the past two seasons in Washington).

>> Donald Thomas was cheaper ($3.5 million guaranteed) but got hurt after two games and hasn't played since.

>> Darrius Heyward-Bey ($1.5 million guaranteed) was signed to be a No. 2 receiver, but managed just 309 yards and one touchdown on 29 catches. To his credit, he accepted a role on special teams as Hilton emerged, and he carved out an NFL career at the end of the roster.

Grigson also added Walden, Hasselbeck and Bradshaw, who were productive. But the 2013 class did not provide a significant return on investment in the short- or long-term.

Indianapolis Colts defensive end Arthur Jones (97) adjusts his helmet during warmups prior to the game against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016.
SIGNING ART JONES

He seemed like the perfect addition. Jones had seen his playing time increase each year in Baltimore — from zero starts to one to six to 13 — and he had just made 53 tackles with four sacks. At worst, he was a solid addition to a defensive line that needed help. At best, he could unlock additional playmaking skills the Colts needed.

Instead, he got hurt. He started just three games in his first season, missed all of 2015 and has been saddled with injuries and a suspension for violating the NFL performance-enhancing drug policy this season.

A contract that guaranteed him $10 million has resulted in 11 starts, 64 tackles and 1.5 sacks.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) is sacked by Tennessee Titans nose tackle Austin Johnson (94) in the second half of  their NFL football game Sunday, November 20, 206, afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts defeated the Titans 24-17.
OFFENSIVE LINE

It's taken all season, but the combination of an influx of rookie talent (led by first-round pick Ryan Kelly) and first-year coach Joe Philbin seems to have the offensive line on the right track.

But it took too long.

Luck — the centerpiece of the franchise — has been hit more than any quarterback since he entered the league, in no small part because he's played behind 35 different lines. The Colts drafted players, signed free agents and claimed players on waivers. They've been young and old. Anthony Castonzo — who predates Grigson — has started every game at left tackle for Luck, but there's been 11 left guards, six centers, eight right guards and nine right tackles.

Colts Insider Stephen Holder addressed the issue:

Now, it’s five years into the Andrew Luck era, and the franchise quarterback is as beat up as he’s ever been. Luck is on pace to sustain the most sacks of his career in 2016. And, if you can believe it, he’s hurt again. He missed practice Wednesday with shoulder and elbow soreness, though he’s expected to play against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

So, did the Colts botch this? Did we expect too much? Was some of this beyond the Colts’ control?

Yes, yes and yes.